शुक्रवार, १८ जुलै, २००८

खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ४ (पैशाचा साठा, प्रगती, मर्यादा)

प्रेषक नाना चेंगट ( गुरू, 07/10/2008 - 11:55) .

"सदर लेखन हा माझ्या 'इंग्लिश डॉक्टरेट'चा एक भाग आहे म्हणून, तसेच या विषयावर मी लिहावे असा काही लोकांचा आग्रह आहे म्हणून माझे लेखन मी येथे जसेच्या तसे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. हे मराठी संकेतस्थळ आहे याची मला पूर्ण कल्पना आहे परंतु वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे सदर लेखन हा माझ्या व्यक्तिगत अभ्यासाचाच एक भाग असल्यामुळे तो मराठीत भाषांतरीत न करता इंग्रजीमध्येच येथे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. जनरल डायर यांनी "अपवादात्मक परिस्थिती" म्हणून हे मान्य केले आहे!"
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग १ (पैशाची निर्मिती)खेळ पैशाचा - भाग २ (इन्फ्लेशन)खेळ पैशाचा - भाग ३ (बँकांची गरज - सतत इन्फ्लेशन)
Money stock
As mentioned earlier, the stock of money society disposes of is the total amount of outstanding loans. By itself this is very strange. For what should be the relation between the outstanding loans and the need for money in society? What does the need of borrowers and their capacity to pay back have to do with the need of money of the rest of society? If you buy a house tomorrow, and, with your loan, bring into existence money for twenty years, that does not have anything to do with the need of the economy in ten or fifteen years, does it?
In fact, society disposes of a hazardous money stock, brought about by issued loans in the past, and the part that still has to be paid back. Each day parts are paid back and new loans are contracted. Because of the gigantic volume of the money stock the population hardly notices the variations. In theory, central banks could centralize all information about outstanding loans and know exactly how much money will be left from the loans tomorrow, in two days or in ten days. With monetary operations they could keep the money stock rather stable. However, as mentioned above, this is not the policy of central banks. They only make the money stock grow.
There are theories that say, that without inflation the economy could not be steered. One of the key arguments is, that when the money stock does not increase, wages cannot be lowered when needed by economic adversity. “The paid out wages would have to be lowered and employees would never accept that.” And “when the money stock increases, cuts in wages can be hidden by letting the wages rise less quickly than the inflation.” So, the proponents of this theory understand, that inflation is bamboozlement of the people and argue, that it cannot work otherwise. Yet, their theory does not hold true. For, with a stable money stock, some prices would rise, while others would lower. People’s acceptance of variations in wages would be very different from today’s situation, where, since decades, prices only rise. Besides, with a stable money stock, it is even possible to maintain the paid out wages stable during economic adversity, if during economic prosperity the extra income is formed by shares in profits and tax-reductions.
Today’s money system does not start from a quantity of money that would fit the needs of the economy. Today’s system only assures, that banks collect interest over all existing money, that the competition among them causes maximum monetary inflation and that central banks secure their income and power. The stimulation of the economy consists of nothing else than a little more or a little less interest and inflation. For the rest the economy must deal with the money that happens to be there at a particular moment.
Inflation and economic growthOur monetary system, ruled by banks, interest and inflation, already existed when we were born. It is part of our “natural” surrounding. That is why it is hard to see which influence it has on our life and on society. Everything we could say about it, can easily be judged as normal. We don’t know better. The effects of the system are everywhere, even in our way of thinking and in our convictions.
So we find it self-evident, that the economy can only be sound when it grows. The concept of “economic growth” has been canonized by economists, politicians and everyone who understands or assumes he understands society. In Western Europe and North America strived with success for economic growth since the start of the industrial revolution. The system has proven itself.
It is not an accident, that our money-system is based on eternal inflation and our economy on eternal growth. Some clever bankers conceived the system this way at the beginning of the past century. Interest and inflation would form a permanent income for the banks, as counterpart of simply juggling money out of their hats. The loans would lead to more economic activity. Governments and the population would come and beg for more loans. It fit perfectly in the developments of the industrial area. Mechanization, mining, extensive farming, colonial resources, scaling up, competition among nations, wars and reconstructions, the explosive growth of the populations, workers from abroad, women at work, the development of the services sector, the boom in computer technology, it all led to economic growth. Economic growth was synonym for prosperity. Today, in Western Europe, we still talk in terms of economic growth. By the flattening of the population growth this can now only be obtained by an ever increasing working pressure per employee. The roads of economic growth and prosperity part.
Inflation works like the carrot in front of the nose of the donkey. Everybody starts to run harder to obtain some of the extra money that has been put into circulation. And while running, nobody escapes from the payment for the use of money. Thanks to the inflation everybody participates in paying the interest to the banks. And if, by all of us running harder, we grow wealthier, we can almost be sure that the interest will be raised. In banking jargon it then says, that the economy is overheated and has to slow down. Until we must run harder again.
World wide expansion
Meanwhile the banks have made themselves conspicuous. With their juggling trick they conquered the world. Everywhere banks have taken the power over money and make the population pay interest and inflation. Every-where, except in China, central banks have obtained special laws, to set – independently from the will of the local government – the level of interest and inflation. After Western Europe and Northern America other countries are now developing their economy. For the banks this means new governments and populations, who want money from the hat.In fact it does not make a lot of difference if central banks are private or state banks. Nearly everywhere they have obtained a special statute, that grants them a high level of independence from the local government. Together with the commercial banks, they determine how many loans are issued, how much money society disposes of and how much the population has to pay.Further growth or a sustainable society?
The policy of most central banks is based on permanent growth of the money stock. In Western Europe and North America this growth of money accompanied the growth of the economy and the growth of the population. Meanwhile the world has changed a lot. The explosive expansion of the population and the expansion of economic activities have tremendously increased the pressure on the environment. Fertile areas have been taken over by humans. Forests have changed into farm land and cities. Many species have been exterminated. Most of the fish from oceans and seas has been plundered. By the fast growing world population the pollution of soils, water and air still increases. In many places there are food and drinking water shortages. The climate is changing. The prognoses indicate, that with the current trends the population of the world will continue to grow fast and will even still double. The lines in the graphic have been drawn as if this is possible…
Limits to growth
The earth does not grow along with the expansion of our economies and the populations. For the first time in human history we encounter the limits. Of course we have no idea what to do. Limits to the world population? No one in power dares to burn his fingers on that subject.
Where is that limit? That depends on what we want as humanity. If we want to reach the highest possible quality of life – for our children and grandchildren -, we should not burden the earth more than strictly necessary. We should strive for a smaller population. That would also take away the principle reason for conflicts and wars.
Today’s policy is completely opposite to the needs of a peaceful and sustainable society. The money system plays a key role. Reforms are necessary. The longer we wait, the more difficult it will become in the future.
हे मिसळ पाव वरुण घेतले आहे.