शुक्रवार, १८ जुलै, २००८

खेळ पैशाचा - भाग २ (इन्फ्लेशन)

प्रेषक नाना चेंगट ( मंगळ, 07/08/2008 - 19:31) .




"सदर लेखन हा माझ्या 'इंग्लिश डॉक्टरेट'चा एक भाग आहे म्हणून, तसेच या विषयावर मी लिहावे असा काही लोकांचा आग्रह आहे म्हणून माझे लेखन मी येथे जसेच्या तसे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. हे मराठी संकेतस्थळ आहे याची मला पूर्ण कल्पना आहे परंतु वर म्हटल्याप्रमाणे सदर लेखन हा माझ्या व्यक्तिगत अभ्यासाचाच एक भाग असल्यामुळे तो मराठीत भाषांतरीत न करता इंग्रजीमध्येच येथे प्रसिद्ध करत आहे. जनरल डायर यांनी "अपवादात्मक परिस्थिती" म्हणून हे मान्य केले आहे!"
खेळ पैशाचा - भाग १ (पैशाची निर्मिती)
Permanent inflation
Price inflation makes lose value on the money. It can fluctuate a lot over time. Many economic theories offer different and sometimes contradictory explanations about the root causes of this inflation. However, these theories rather explain increasing and lowering prices among products and services. They do not explain why inflation is permanent. The permanent inflation has a different cause.
Consumer Price Index and Price Inflation
Price inflation leads to dissatisfaction of the population. That is why a lot of countries use a Consumer Price Index, which shows more pleasant figures. So, when politicians or officials use the word “inflation”, they most often mean the changes in the Consumer Price Index or Wholesale Price Index.
This index is normally based on a yearly price comparison of a basket of products, that an average household might need. The content of the basket varies from country to country and so do the underlying rules to calculate the index. One country may include the cost of food, fuel and housing; another country may leave these costs out. Some countries publish the categories of products they have in the basket, but the exact products usually remain secret. Nevertheless, some statistics bureaus disclose some tricks they use to obtain flattering indexes. For instance, they change the content of the basket periodically. Products that rise in price too much are taken out and replaced by cheaper ones. Or, when the price of a product remains stable, but quality improves, they count the quality improvement as a price reduction.
So, the content of the basket is adjusted periodically. The justification is: "when prices rise, households adjust their purchases too." And what does this policy means for the index? Well, since the defined household cannot spend more than it earns, the price-increase of the CPI-basket is automatically limited to the increase in earnings. The defined household cannot pay higher prices.
Unless indicated otherwise, the expression “price inflation” refers to the real increase in prices in all transactions and not to some CPI/WPI. And “inflation” means, in the first place, the increase of the money stock.
Cost-push theory
As per the cost-push theory, increasing costs are responsible for price inflation, like higher wages, increase in price of imported raw materials or increase of taxes on consumption.
Demand-pull theory
The demand-pull theory says, price inflation appears when demand exceeds the offer. Increased demand can be caused by export activities, tax reductions or growth of the money supply. Fluctuations in demand can also occur, when consumers save more money and, after some time, start spending it again.
People’s expectations
The expectations for price inflation also affect real price inflation. Manufacturers and traders generally have pricelists, which are valid for six months or a year. They have to include a percentage for expected inflation. This immediately increases the prices, and thus contributes to the real inflation. The same goes for bankers. When they issue loans, they foresee that the interest they get in return over time will be lowered by inflation, thus they calculate an extra margin. Extra cost of interest contributes to the real inflation.
Increase of the money stock
If demand-pull and cost-push inflations would take place without expansion of the money-stock, some prices would rise and others would lower. However, we rather see some prices rise faster than others, but rarely prices that lower. This is because, over time, the money stock increases by more and more outstanding loans. This is called the monetary inflation.
Of course it affects the prices in transactions, however, never evenly. Practically, when more money becomes available, this extra money creates room for price increases in each successive transaction it goes through. We may presume, that when other inflationary factors are at work somewhere, for instance high demand, the extra money will lead to extra price increases there.
The monetary inflation is the cause of the permanent overall price increases we notice in the long run. It is the only inflation that counts over years and decades.
Inflation, in the first place, refers to inflating the money stock. This leads to the increase of average prices. Today we also use the word "inflation" for the increase of prices. Keep in mind, when the money stock grows and, simultaneously, productivity grows, it may happen, that the average prices don’t increase or increase less quickly. The available money is spread out among a greater number of products and services and this helps keep prices down.
(Continued ...)
हे मिसळ पाव वरुण घेतले आहे.